Interesting Bill James Projections

I'm a big fan of Bill James and I love his annual handbook. There are plenty of crazy projections that make you shake your head, but for the most part they are a good indication of the upcoming season. Eric Simon of Amazin' Avenue recently compiled a list of 2009 free agents, and there are plenty of interesting projections:

Hitter	Age	G	AB	HR	RC	Avg	OBP	SLG	OPS
Bobby Abreu	35	159	604	19	107	0.286	0.389	0.455	0.844
Rocco Baldelli	27	103	312	12	47	0.279	0.330	0.465	0.795
Milton Bradley	31	123	442	20	83	0.287	0.391	0.489	0.879
Pat Burrell	32	157	537	32	98	0.253	0.377	0.490	0.867
Adam Dunn	29	159	562	42	112	0.246	0.386	0.527	0.913
Rafael Furcal	31	119	486	9	71	0.286	0.354	0.409	0.763
Brian Giles	38	149	579	16	96	0.280	0.387	0.435	0.822
Jose Guillen	33	145	557	21	76	0.271	0.322	0.445	0.767
Orlando Hudson	31	140	533	11	78	0.283	0.353	0.420	0.773
Raul Ibanez	37	159	623	22	95	0.278	0.343	0.448	0.791
Manny Ramirez	37	150	552	34	121	0.301	0.404	0.551	0.955
Juan Rivera	30	99	317	13	48	0.281	0.327	0.467	0.794
Brian Roberts	31	156	623	10	96	0.283	0.364	0.414	0.778
Mark Teixeira	29	154	589	36	129	0.299	0.397	0.559	0.956

Pitcher	Age	G	IP	H	HR	BB	SO	BR/9	ERA
A.J. Burnett	32	33	224	199	21	88	218	12.0	3.62
Ryan Dempster	32	30	195	182	16	90	166	12.9	3.89
Jon Garland	29	30	186	203	22	57	93	12.8	4.38
Randy Johnson	45	28	170	153	21	41	178	10.7	3.40
Derek Lowe	36	32	206	205	17	56	132	11.6	3.60
Jake Peavy	28	32	202	173	19	65	202	10.9	3.26
C.C. Sabathia	28	34	240	226	21	70	205	11.4	3.48
Ben Sheets	30	29	186	178	19	41	159	10.7	3.39
Randy Wolf	32	32	195	198	25	70	161	12.8	4.29

Pitcher	Age	G	IP	H	HR	BB	SO	BR/9	ERA
Kyle Farnsworth	33	53	54	50	8	23	58	12.3	4.15
Brian Fuentes	33	63	62	50	6	25	70	11.6	3.43
Trevor Hoffman	41	42	42	35	4	10	38	9.6	2.94
Brandon Lyon	29	54	55	61	5	15	35	12.6	4.16
Will Ohman	31	79	50	44	4	23	50	12.4	3.69
Arthur Rhodes	39	66	38	34	2	14	39	11.6	3.29
Juan Rincon	30	46	56	55	5	23	50	12.9	4.01
Francisco Rodriguez	27	73	66	47	5	30	85	10.6	2.90
Kerry Wood	32	62	66	53	7	28	74	11.7	3.51

My thoughts:
Hitters:

• Seems like a step back for Milton Bradley. His batting average drops 40 points, and he only gets 83 runs created. It will be interesting to see if last year was really a breakout year for Bradley. His 2009 projections look identical to his 9 year career averages.
• The Phillies better hope James is wrong about Raul Ibanez. A .278/22/95 line is definitely not worth $10 Million, and Pat Burrell's 32 HR's and 98 RC's would drive Phillies fans crazy.
• Is it just me, or does Manny Ramirez put up the same statline year in and year out. James has him at .301/34/121 which seems about right. Is there a more consistent hitter in the game?
• I think James is way too conservative with Orlando Hudson. I really feel like he's going to have a breakout season, and hit upwards of .320
• Teixeira leads the group with a .956 OPS. I get the feeling that he will be worth every penny to the team that signs him. Please don't let that be the Yankees.

Pitchers

• No way Randy Johnson pitches 170 innings this year. Let alone an ERA of 3.40 and 178 K's. It's just not happening.
• I would be perfectly content with Fransisco Rodriguez's statline. He continues to strike guys out to go along with his 2.90 ERA, and he only allows 47 hits in 66 innings. That would translate to around 45 saves for the Mets.
• If C.C. Sabathia really does throw 240 innings this year, the Yanks are in for some serious trouble down the road. But based on these projections, C.C. is gonna dominate 2009.
• Ben Sheets looks like one of the top 3 free agent pitchers based on these projections. I think if he stays healthy these numbers are justifiable.
  

Top 25 Baseball Players Under 29, Who Ya Got?

Bill James is the resident genius among baseball statisticians and sabermetricians and recently released his annual baseball yearly review book. A quick review of some of the book can be found at the Baseball Analysts. Now, I haven't read this, but I have read Bill James before. He is constantly forward thinking, intelligent, and to the point, which makes for some great baseball thinking whenever you get some time to read his books.

In this year's edition, James lists his top 25 players under the age of 29. This list is "based on proven major league talents, not prospects or young players who are not yet proven as major league players." I found this section in a post over at It is about the money, stupid, where one man shares his opinion on James' selections. However, I've got my own thoughts and questions on the list, some very similar to the thoughts from IIATMS. Here's the list, then the rambling:

1. Prince Fielder, Milwaukee Brewers first baseman, age 24
2. Hanley Ramirez, Florida Marlins shortstop, age 24
3. Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants pitcher, age 24
4. David Wright, New York Mets third baseman, age 25
5. Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers left fielder, age 24
6. Dustin Pedroia, Boston Red Sox second baseman, age 24
7. Matt Kemp, Los Angeles Dodgers center fielder, age 23
8. Francisco Rodriguez, Los Angeles Angels pitcher, age 26
9. Jose Reyes, New York Mets shortstop, age 25
10. Nick Markakis, Baltimore Orioles right fielder, age 24
11. Joakim Soria, Kansas City Royals pitcher, age 24
12. Ryan Zimmerman, Washington Nationals third baseman, age 23
13. Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies pitcher, age 24
14. Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado Rockies shortstop, age 23
15. Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners pitcher, age 22
16. Jon Lester, Boston Red Sox pitcher, age 24
17. Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays third baseman, age 22
18. John Danks, Chicago White Sox pitcher, age 23
19. Adrian Gonzalez, San Diego Padres first baseman, age 26
20. James Loney, Los Angeles Dodgers first baseman, age 24
21. Stephen Drew, Arizona Diamondbacks shortstop, age 25
22. Brian McCann, Atlanta Braves catcher, age 24
23. Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers first baseman, age 25
24. Grady Sizemore, Cleveland Indians center fielder, age 25
25. Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds first baseman, age 24

First of all, I have trouble rambling about this because Bill James compilled the list and has an infinitely wider aray of baseball knowledge than I do. Also, I should probably read the book for more in depth analysis on the list and you should too. Nonetheless, here's my take on the names, at first glance.

Prince Fielder topping the list really surprises me. There is no doubt that he is a great power hitter, but I see him as much less of a complete player than most of the guys near the top of this list. I would have seen him closer to fifth. Behind, Ramirez, Lincecum, Wright and Braun, who I think are ordered accurately.

I'm very high on Matt Kemp and think he'll be a fantastic player some day (soon), but I'm not sure if I think he tops Hamels, King Felix, Lester, Longoria, or Sizemore.

Speaking of Sizemore...#24? I understand that he didn't perform to fully to potential this year, but he is a superstar and much more established than many of the names above him, especially everyone in the 18-23 range, with the exception of possibly Adrian Gonzalez, but he isn't the complete player that Sizemore is.

Also, Longoria seems low at #17. He struggled mightily in the World Series, but showed all season why he was hyped so much as a prospect. He is a superstar in the making and deserves more credit on this list.

As for IIATMS' comment on Joakim Soria up at 11, I don't have a problem with his ranking. Yes, I am a charter member of his fan club, however his numbers don't lie. He is a fantastic closer and a top of the line pitcher. It can definitely argue that he is a little too high, however you won't be getting that argument here. Soria is the truth, and he will be displaying that for years to come.

Hamels should probably be a little higher based on the fabulous playoff run he just put together. That doesn't change the good, not great regular season that he had, however, it was a wildly impressive.

And congrats to Nick Markakis for getting some love outta Baltimore. He is a great player who doesn't get the attention he deserves while toiling away in the AL East cellar with the lowly Orioles.

If I was king of the sabermetric world and people would pay for my opinion I probably alter the list a little. But, I'm not and I won't pretend that I can statistically back these comments up. The list is out there and up for discussion. I can't be the only one left a little confused...