Interesting Bill James Projections

I'm a big fan of Bill James and I love his annual handbook. There are plenty of crazy projections that make you shake your head, but for the most part they are a good indication of the upcoming season. Eric Simon of Amazin' Avenue recently compiled a list of 2009 free agents, and there are plenty of interesting projections:

Hitter	Age	G	AB	HR	RC	Avg	OBP	SLG	OPS
Bobby Abreu	35	159	604	19	107	0.286	0.389	0.455	0.844
Rocco Baldelli	27	103	312	12	47	0.279	0.330	0.465	0.795
Milton Bradley	31	123	442	20	83	0.287	0.391	0.489	0.879
Pat Burrell	32	157	537	32	98	0.253	0.377	0.490	0.867
Adam Dunn	29	159	562	42	112	0.246	0.386	0.527	0.913
Rafael Furcal	31	119	486	9	71	0.286	0.354	0.409	0.763
Brian Giles	38	149	579	16	96	0.280	0.387	0.435	0.822
Jose Guillen	33	145	557	21	76	0.271	0.322	0.445	0.767
Orlando Hudson	31	140	533	11	78	0.283	0.353	0.420	0.773
Raul Ibanez	37	159	623	22	95	0.278	0.343	0.448	0.791
Manny Ramirez	37	150	552	34	121	0.301	0.404	0.551	0.955
Juan Rivera	30	99	317	13	48	0.281	0.327	0.467	0.794
Brian Roberts	31	156	623	10	96	0.283	0.364	0.414	0.778
Mark Teixeira	29	154	589	36	129	0.299	0.397	0.559	0.956

Pitcher	Age	G	IP	H	HR	BB	SO	BR/9	ERA
A.J. Burnett	32	33	224	199	21	88	218	12.0	3.62
Ryan Dempster	32	30	195	182	16	90	166	12.9	3.89
Jon Garland	29	30	186	203	22	57	93	12.8	4.38
Randy Johnson	45	28	170	153	21	41	178	10.7	3.40
Derek Lowe	36	32	206	205	17	56	132	11.6	3.60
Jake Peavy	28	32	202	173	19	65	202	10.9	3.26
C.C. Sabathia	28	34	240	226	21	70	205	11.4	3.48
Ben Sheets	30	29	186	178	19	41	159	10.7	3.39
Randy Wolf	32	32	195	198	25	70	161	12.8	4.29

Pitcher	Age	G	IP	H	HR	BB	SO	BR/9	ERA
Kyle Farnsworth	33	53	54	50	8	23	58	12.3	4.15
Brian Fuentes	33	63	62	50	6	25	70	11.6	3.43
Trevor Hoffman	41	42	42	35	4	10	38	9.6	2.94
Brandon Lyon	29	54	55	61	5	15	35	12.6	4.16
Will Ohman	31	79	50	44	4	23	50	12.4	3.69
Arthur Rhodes	39	66	38	34	2	14	39	11.6	3.29
Juan Rincon	30	46	56	55	5	23	50	12.9	4.01
Francisco Rodriguez	27	73	66	47	5	30	85	10.6	2.90
Kerry Wood	32	62	66	53	7	28	74	11.7	3.51

My thoughts:
Hitters:

• Seems like a step back for Milton Bradley. His batting average drops 40 points, and he only gets 83 runs created. It will be interesting to see if last year was really a breakout year for Bradley. His 2009 projections look identical to his 9 year career averages.
• The Phillies better hope James is wrong about Raul Ibanez. A .278/22/95 line is definitely not worth $10 Million, and Pat Burrell's 32 HR's and 98 RC's would drive Phillies fans crazy.
• Is it just me, or does Manny Ramirez put up the same statline year in and year out. James has him at .301/34/121 which seems about right. Is there a more consistent hitter in the game?
• I think James is way too conservative with Orlando Hudson. I really feel like he's going to have a breakout season, and hit upwards of .320
• Teixeira leads the group with a .956 OPS. I get the feeling that he will be worth every penny to the team that signs him. Please don't let that be the Yankees.

Pitchers

• No way Randy Johnson pitches 170 innings this year. Let alone an ERA of 3.40 and 178 K's. It's just not happening.
• I would be perfectly content with Fransisco Rodriguez's statline. He continues to strike guys out to go along with his 2.90 ERA, and he only allows 47 hits in 66 innings. That would translate to around 45 saves for the Mets.
• If C.C. Sabathia really does throw 240 innings this year, the Yanks are in for some serious trouble down the road. But based on these projections, C.C. is gonna dominate 2009.
• Ben Sheets looks like one of the top 3 free agent pitchers based on these projections. I think if he stays healthy these numbers are justifiable.